The 2033 TEXIT Apocalypse Scenario

It has been posited by many that the year 2033 will mark the dissolution of the USA, with that in mind let’s war game out what I think is the most likely scenario for such an event. Let us begin a few years earlier to the first domino in the chain of consequences.

2030: The Iran Disaster

Israel has finally gotten what is desires the most, a USA ground invasion of Iran. As you can guess from the title it winds up turning into a complete disaster for the USA (and Israel). Losses are horrific, including tens of thousands dead, the sinking of multiple carriers, and the loss of staggering amounts of equipment.

Iran closes of the Straights of Hormuz, strangling the world oil supply and triggering mass unrest within the gulf Arab states. What is left of the USA military is forced to withdraw, shattering USA power throughout the world (and the dollar along with it).

Texas, however, is somewhat insulated from the economic impact owing to having it’s own gold and silver tender (and digital currency). Texas declares independence in early 2031, causing a secessionist cascade. First the states of Louisiana, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and New Mexico throw in with Texas because they have no choice (economically).

The dominos keep falling in the South as the majority of the former confederate states decide to secede as well. In addition to the loss of all these states the new border states (such as Kansas, northern-central Missouri, West Virginia, and parts of Virginia) also become conflict ridden hotbeds.

The federal ability to respond is severely limited at this point, the Iran Disaster has shattered the military’s backbone. Many of the troops may still be overseas at this point, leaving many military bases undermanned. Mass unrest will be occurring throughout the nation, stretching military resources to the breaking point.

Adding to this is that the Iran Disaster was political suicide for the reigning president, nuking his political authority. He will simply no longer have the respect of anyone at this point, including much of the military.

2031: Year of Unrest

The rest of 2031 is unbridled chaos in most respects but it is not a period of open warfare between the federal government and the resurgent Texan led confederacy. Instead both sides must contend with the disloyal political and racial elements within their own territories and the warring factions within the border states.

Both sides must also begin the task of rejiggering their economies, not an easy feat given USA interconnectedness. This will be in many similar to the build up that proceeded the confederate assault on Fort Sumter at the very beginning of the civil war.

2032: The Mississippi Conflicts

Entering the new year both sides will have both realized something very, very important, the Mississippi river is life itself. Given that the neo-confederacy will ultimately control it (via controlling New Orleans) this logically leads to armed conflict. Washington loyalists will have to take it if they want to survive, the neo-confederates will defend it to the last man.

Adding to this strategic imperative is that the northern loyalists cannot afford much waiting with regards to New Orleans. Control over the river means the ability to impose tariffs on river traffic and the ability to send forces up it. This likely means that given enough time the states of Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota will be added to the burgeoning secessionists.

If that occurs the Washington loyalists are completely toast, the neo-confederacy at that point will be able to enact it’s own version of the civil war era Anaconda plan on the North. This means armed conflict will break out, mostly concentrated on the Mississippi river in the first few weeks to months. This will eventually expand to encompass every border state.

The main front for both sides though will still be the Mississippi river, control over it is simply too vital given that it cannot be easily sabotaged or destroyed. The other fronts opened in the border states such as Tennessee, Missouri, Kansas, and Kentucky will exist mainly to support the Mississippi campaign.

The odds do not favor the Washington loyalists, in addition to the horrific losses sustained during the Iran Disaster they will have to contend with brutal desertion rates. The combination of the Iran Disaster and the sheer number of Texans and Southerners in the military will make desertion high to begin with. I would estimate at least 20% pre-conflict, with open warfare it could climb much higher.

I am not even factoring in the risk of entire commands going rogue either, remember how I said the President would lose political authority? That loss of authority means that many officers (including generals and colonels) could be potentially seduced to the rebel cause.

The desertion issue is further worsened by the strategic imperative to regain control of the Mississippi River, this inevitably means multiple offensive actions. We can rest assured that even the dumbest military hacks in the reborn confederacy will realize this and fortify accordingly. Sieges almost always require a three to four manpower advantage over the defender, even then they are bloody and take a long time to wage.

With projected loyalist desertion rates that means that the best the yankees can hope for are deeply pyrrhic victories. By 2033-2034 the Northern military will cease to be capable of waging offensive ground warfare.

2033: The Final Nail in The Coffin

With loyalist forces severely depleted and forced into purely defensive efforts the rebels will be able to drive the final nail in. This nail being economic strangulation which will lead to mass rebellion in the northern Mississippi states. The populations of these states will logically conclude that the only way they can survive is within the neo-confederacy’s embrace.

For point of reference it is quite likely that these states will have had pro-independence movements and militias forming by 2032 at the latest. If they have not already overcome loyalist forces by the start of 2033 they will by the end of the year.

This will mean that Southern forces will be able to use the Mississippi as an unrestricted highway. The major battles of this year will most likely be the sieges of Chicago and the Twin Cities. The fall of these two vital metros will give rebel armies the ability to attack the north from many different angles. The collapse of the Midwest front will also allow for the long, torturous coup de grace that I believe will follow.

2034-2040: The Anaconda Visits The North

While there is the option for the neo-confederacy to end this war relatively quickly I suspect it will not be taken for one reason. It simply won’t be worth the loss of men. What is likely to occur is a near-complete land, air, and sea blockade of North.

They will have virtually no way to defeat this blockade, they are also not even remotely capable of agricultural or fossil fuel self-sufficiency. This means that all the South has to do is sit back, open a cold one, and let starvation and disease finish the job. It may take years but the wait will be worth it, when these regions are formally annexed all the would be guerillas will be dead.

Objections

1st: What About Nukes?

This is a valid concern but I do not believe they will play a major role for one reason, both sides will have them. Rest assured that the Texans will be prepared to sacrifice thousands of men to storm the bases where the nukes are kept. So long as they can seize the physical missiles themselves the rest of the nuclear safeguards (barring a self destruction protocol) will only prove to be a delay.

Even if all the Texans can do is scavenge the nuclear innards from the missiles they can do the rest given enough time. They are not lacking when it comes to engineering schools and the new nukes only need to reach as far as Washington D.C and New York.

The normal “rules” that govern the usage of nukes are likely to apply in this scenario, both sides will know that using one nuke will likely result in full on nuclear war. The main concern with this is if the federals get truly desperate, then we will be entering into unfamiliar waters.

2nd: Could The Texans/Neo-Confederacy Just Secede Peacefully?

This is conceivable but misses two problems, first and foremost is that the federals are unimaginably arrogant and stupid (see Vietnam and almost every war since). They may shy away from open conflict at first but they will likely go in guns blazing at some point. If they wind up doing so there will be no going back for reason number two.

Reason number two is what I will call the “killer bee” effect. If you’ve ever had the misfortune to deal with Africanized honeybees you know how bad they are. Once you have “disturbed” them they will not stop, they will pursue you for miles. They will wait above the water until you have to resurface for air just to sting you a bazillion times.

The reason they do this is that these Africanized killer bees understand instinctively that the best way to protect the hive is not just to chase away the threat, it is to kill the threat.

3rd: International Intervention?

This is perhaps the strongest objection of the five and the answer to it is multi-faceted. First the Chinese and the Russians are unlikely to intervene directly, the logistics alone make directly reinforcing either side a nightmare. Both, however, could intervene in the form of cyberwarfare, weapons shipments, and political actions.

There is, however, one possible area where they could stage a boots on the ground “intervention”. That area being the west coast (including Canada and Alaska). This will not be to stabilize or support either side in the conflict, rather this will be pure opportunism. The chances of this occurring are directly correlated to the political and military state of the North American west coast.

The EU will be in no shape to do anything either, this leaves the rest of the Americas. Canada is unlikely to be able to do much of anything, the internal and external shocks from a TEXIT event will likely mean their questionable military will be used to keep order at home.

This leaves two major what-ifs in the form of Mexico and Brazil. Neither of these nations can be described as “politically united”, both of them have major issues with cartels/gangs within their own borders. Even if they are able to muster a coherent response to events within the USA their ability to act on it will be limited.

4th: Why Wouldn’t The World Try To Save Itself?

Closely related to the fourth objection this point does deserve it’s own explanation. Simply put the USA is at this point the center of the world economy, if it falls into civil unrest (and likely civil war) the world economy will likely tank. As a result the logical question is why wouldn’t the world try to intervene to save themselves?

The answer lies in the fact that the USA is already well past the point of no return when it comes to economic salvaging. There was one, one chance to save it in 2008 and it was botched. The banks were saved and the day of reckoning delayed. Unfortunately by delaying that day of economic judgement the consequences of it will not just be painful, they will be fatal.

No matter how much the world would like to not suffer through this they will have no choice in the matter. There is simply no intervention they could possibly do that would save the USA’s economic house of cards.

5th: What About Northern Industry?

It will largely not be a factor in the conflict, the reason being that it is no longer the behemoth it was in the civil war. Midwestern and Northern industry alike have been crippled by globalization, Southern industry meanwhile has grown thanks to their willingness to woo manufacturing to their states. They are at this point roughly equal to each other. If anything the North will be the one at the disadvantage, mainly due to fuel and material shortages.

Both sides in truth will face a collapse from high tech industrial warfare (i.e. drones and complicated aerial and ground vehicles) into low tech industrial warfare. This is simply do to the fact that much of the USA’s industrial base is dependent on foreign made components (this includes much of our military technology).

Afterword

I must note one thing about this scenario, it was generated with Murphy’s Law in mind. I assumed that everything that could go wrong would go wrong (starting with Iran being a complete debacle). I personally believe that the USA is unlikely to collapse into a true civil war (barring an Iran or Taiwan war) for at least two if not more decades.

The western third of the USA was left out of this war gaming exercise because it will truly be it’s own separate reality. I would have to make a separate article specifically to deal with not just the domestic part of it but the foreign interventions that could occur.